Stfuppercut wrote: ↑
1 year ago
I would estimate at least 1 million players on launch. If each server ends up with a population of 10k, that would be about 100 servers. Now I obviously don't have access to Blizz analytics but I would estimate that at least 1 million users will be interested in Classic after removing the tourists in the first few weeks. I think this is a pretty conservative estimate to be honest. Whether that interest remains for a prolonged period will be determined later, but I would estimate that Blizz can count on at least 1 mil active subs for the first few phases. I would say that you need at least 100 servers to satiate that population.
We don't know how many layers they are planning to go with nor do we have a perfect number of how many players per layer, only an estimate. Blizz has said they want to squash down layers as soon as possible, within the first few weeks but definitely before the 2nd phase. How high can you let the population go and how many layers can you add while also assuring yourself that you will be able to meet that deadline and squash layers down by phase 2? This makes me feel like they would be inclined to run a maximum of 2-3 layers per continent at an estimation of 3k players per layer for a total server population of around 12-20k players. Assuming you have some player attrition, these realms will comfortably decline to 10k players for the layer squish.
At this point this is mostly speculation, but people who are anticipating less than 50-100 servers must be estimating less than 1 million players. Just based on the quantity of players in the private server community, who will be the minority on Classic, it is likely that we will be at a very minimum of 1 mil players a few months into Classic.
Keep in mind that the higher populations are on a given server, the bigger impact layering has and the less likely layering will be squished in a short timespan.
edit: I use 1 mil as a very conservative estimate. I would estimate this to be far higher but my estimation is biased and silly. Blizz has a VERY accurate estimate, especially after the name reserve on Aug.13th. This will likely help them determine how many servers they will need.