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What are your predictions? How many do you think will drop off after just a few months?

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I would say 3 or 4 million a week after launch. Concurrent after a few months? Probably 2-2.5m.

Mark Kern's predictions are pretty accurate, he said about 2 million.

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Nenski wrote:
2 months ago
I would say 3 or 4 million a week after launch. Concurrent after a few months? Probably 2-2.5m.

Mark Kern's predictions are pretty accurate, he said about 2 million.
That's crazy, never thought it'd be that large of a number. Then again, vanilla was popular. It might also show how disappointed people are about the current state of WoW.

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I'm going with 5 million after launch, 2 million sustained after that.

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Larger than retail

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  • After Launch: 6m
  • After 12 Months: 2.5m

But i think the 2.5 million player-base will be probably only consist of around 200k - 250k players that have their focus on classic-wow, the rest will be players that are "twinking" in classic but will focus the current wow.

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Are we talking after all the content is released or starting from August? If its from August I would agree with Nenski's numbers, maybe just under 2m for concurrent.

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Initial surge probably in the 4-5 million range. I suspect it'll be below 2 million after ~3 months, and probably settle in the 1-1.5 million range long-term. Vanilla isn't for everyone.

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I think the break point for the most Hardcore People (people that play 25+ Hours a week) will be Phase 2 because if they are not into raiding they will have a hard time.
But i think the biggest boost will come with the AQ Event and Naxx because they will affect Alts and twinks.

On release the game will be bigger then Retail because retail is a ghost town on most Servers right now. I know that the next patch will bring people back but the hype around classic is big at the moment.

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I would imagine that it would be about 30-40% of it's initial population. Looking at OSRS as an example it appears their peak on release was around 70,000 players and reaching down to a low point of 12,000 which is 12% of it's initial maximum. I think WoW will have a lot more after it's initial release due to the already planned rolling content releases of Diremaul, MC, AQ, Naxx, etc... which should provide a decent longevity after the initial waves.

Number wise I'd imagine it will start around 6m and end up being 2.1m.

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Less than 10% starting players will be still playing.

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I think it will be much bigger than people think it will be.
I feel alot of people will come out of the wood works to play this game.

It was popular for a reason and one of the most addicting games ever made.
Many of my friends that havent played wow since wrath are coming back.
So yeah 2 - 5 million, its a big range but idk

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  • Initial release: 3 million.
  • After 12 months: 1 million.

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daisyKutter wrote:
2 months ago
  • Initial release: 3 million.
  • After 12 months: 1 million.
I can agree to that.

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5m release
200k-500k when hype dies imo

Classic will have a lot of "nothing left to do" players quitting because that's what retail has trained their attitude to be

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The funny thing is we probably won't know because they won't make the numbers public

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daisyKutter wrote:
2 months ago
The funny thing is we probably won't know because they won't make the numbers public
Or lump together both classic and retail numbers to show how good they are doing lol

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There's ways to find out, for example someone worked out BFA had only 3.5m players a few months ago.

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daisyKutter wrote:
2 months ago
The funny thing is we probably won't know because they won't make the numbers public
We have analytics. We can use twitch viewership, search histories, addon downloads, etc etc etc. None of these sources work as a perfect number but they can all shed some insight into the popularity of the game. This is especially true when comparing two products, for example retail and Classic.

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Stfuppercut wrote:
2 months ago
daisyKutter wrote:
2 months ago
The funny thing is we probably won't know because they won't make the numbers public
We have analytics. We can use twitch viewership, search histories, addon downloads, etc etc etc. None of these sources work as a perfect number but they can all shed some insight into the popularity of the game. This is especially true when comparing two products, for example retail and Classic.
Exactly, I think Blizzard will definitely keep their mouths shut, or just announce 'active subscriptions' rather than saying exactly who is playing retail vs. classic vs. both. I think Classic will bring in more subscribers than retail, until of course they do something drastic/big with retail to get everyone interested again.

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Yeah, 5 million for sure imo.

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Selexin wrote:
2 months ago
Exactly, I think Blizzard will definitely keep their mouths shut, or just announce 'active subscriptions' rather than saying exactly who is playing retail vs. classic vs. both. I think Classic will bring in more subscribers than retail, until of course they do something drastic/big with retail to get everyone interested again.
This is absolutely right. The products are so incredibly different that I think they will strengthen eachother. After searching for groups in Classic, and getting beaten up by the world, it could be refreshing to jump onto retail and play around as a god for a bit, and the same can be said for retail players jumping on Classic. The shared sub indicates that Blizzard has no intention of pinning these communities against eachother. They definitely wont highlight the differences in population. Battlenet integration and other changes show every indication that they intend to merge these two communities and offer each of them an exclusive product.

Not going to lie, I will end up playing some retail. At each phase (depending on their duration) I will hit a point where I'm struggling to find things to do, and it will be nice to jump onto retail to experience some high tier PvP. I will continue to buy each retail xpac and when I get bored, I'll jump back onto Classic. Running these products together is brilliant. So much more value for a subscription.

Consider ALL those MMO's we have all purchased and temporarily tried during content drought's. Blizzard has given us a reason to keep subbed with them instead. Imagine if they go forward with Classic BC? WotlK??? SOOOO much value for a sub!

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Boy this is easy. Those that were raised on the current WOW of instant gratification with little or no work at all, will bail out quickly after they realize....
1. you have to run everywhere for 40 grueling levels and then hope you have the gold for your mount.
2. you have to run to trainers all the time to level things up when you manage to have enough gold to do so.
3. It's takes a long time and a lot of work just to accumulate 1 gold.
4. Bags don't drop willynilly and you are stuck with very little bag space for quite some time.
5. Griffin stations are few and far between
6. etc. etc.
Man I can't wait

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Vanilla made it a challenge, i will not have to worry about all the 12 year olds since when they realize how hard Vanilla is they will quit, way before level 40, my guess is they will quit when they get to SV and get perma ganked by awesome rogues :)...nowadays the game is pay to win for the most part

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4-6m at launch.
2m after 6 months.
1~1.5m after 1 year.
A steady 1m+ after 2 years.
2~3m+ if they ever make Classic+ content, or even more!

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