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Stfuppercut wrote:
6 days ago
Kolvacs wrote:
6 days ago
"Make yourself vulnerable by throwing out a complete guess."
Not quite. I participated in the stress test. I seen the servers go down. I jumped in a wait queue that showed 15-20k players. I was on disc with many people who got in before me. Taking this experience and using it as an educated guess to deduce that servers can host upwards of 30-40k players is not unrealistic. Arguing against that when you have no experience on the subject is a bit illogical though.
I also participated in the stress test and sat in a long queue. We have the exact same amount of "experience on the subject".

A pretty significant difference to note between the stress test and now the realms is that the stress test had 2 realms for all of NA, and now we have a spread of 11 realms with varying amounts of players.

Pippina's making some good points and actually rationally explaining the issues without jumping to a number conclusion.

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Pippina wrote:
6 days ago
Stfuppercut wrote:
6 days ago
I would say that [a large number of players] is on the very low side of what most realms will look like.
I want to boil your idea down to this - you think there are going to be huge numbers of players on each server. So many players that Blizzard won't be able to squish them all into a single flat server by the end of phase 1.
I think that any time you are estimating your retention rates within a playerbase, there is a wide margin for error. While I believe Blizz will account for this, servers will need to be as low as 6-10k to be playable. I feel that naturally burning down to a playable cohesive world within 1 phase while launching with 30-100k players per server is a pretty big risk.
Pippina wrote:
6 days ago
I hope they got their retention number guess right, because that's really the only variable they would have in their population calculations when they determined how many servers to stand up.
Me too. The reality of layers and the squishing phase will be unique to each individual server. So there will be no set date that Blizz can aim for. A low pop server will naturally reduce to a playable single layer quicker than a full pop server will. A full server pop that is split between many layers may feel a lot more vacant than a low pop server with 1 cohesive world - as has been indicated by the beta and stress tests.

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Lendryn wrote:
6 days ago
Can anyone think of gameplay implications besides the queue times? I doubt layering will be a cure-all for this. Rank 10-14 grinds will probably be exponentially more difficult.
Well one game play implication is no one is going to want to log out.. So people will probably be playing even longer than they plan to.

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I've got a group of 5 people willing to play a character dedicated to the group, and another character for their solo/duo experience. This sets up a great dynamic as it means we won't be very impacted by layering as we will be spending a lot of time in dungeons/elite quests as a group of 5, or just solo/duo leveling our other characters. We will also be joining @Gallow in <GRFR> so we will mostly be hanging out with them in our layer.

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so related to this thread, what happens when the realm is full? Can no one else join?

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snickerwicket wrote:
5 days ago
so related to this thread, what happens when the realm is full? Can no one else join?
You are met with a warning message:
"You have selected a full server which can result in a wait to play. You should consider selecting a server with a low population."

This will still allow you to create a character on the realm. On launch day, these realms will have wait times in the hours. We have 5 PvP servers on NA, 3 are full, 1 is medium and 1 is low. If I had to guess, I would assume that less than 50% of the playerbase that will play Classic have reserved names. As mentioned by OP, this would be reflective of polls we have seen on reddit etc. So assuming we do have an additional 50% of people joining, these realms will all be full on launch day and we may see new realms added before launch.

I think a lot of people are misunderstanding how long a full server queue could be on launch where many people plan to play for at least a few hours before logging off. For people who intend to level as a group, playing on a full server is a death sentence for your team - odds are you wont all get in during the initial wave.

For many solo players who are met with this wait time, they will simply opt to choose a different realm and level there. The streamer server will have VERY long queues for a VERY long time. It makes me wonder if they will get priority... I cant imagine that Blizz would leave streamers sit in queues for hours when they could be streaming content.

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Stfuppercut wrote:
6 days ago
Pippina wrote:
6 days ago
I hope they got their retention number guess right, because that's really the only variable they would have in their population calculations when they determined how many servers to stand up.
Me too. The reality of layers and the squishing phase will be unique to each individual server. So there will be no set date that Blizz can aim for. A low pop server will naturally reduce to a playable single layer quicker than a full pop server will. A full server pop that is split between many layers may feel a lot more vacant than a low pop server with 1 cohesive world - as has been indicated by the beta and stress tests.
That's a good point. When I first saw that Fairbanks was a low population server and Whitemane was already high population, I was thinking about switching over because a higher population server sounds more fun. But you got a really good point... the actual server squish down to a single layer is gonna be dependent upon player population and a lower population server is more likely to get there first. And since I want to get to that single layer, I'm better off staying on the lower population server.

Not like it's going to matter though. With Whitemane full, Fairbanks is next up for NA pacific PVP. Unless blizz opens some more servers soon, we'll get full too. Especially if my rough estimates are right and we're already at 50%+ capacity across all north american servers like 30 hours after name reservations.

If nothing else it's interesting to see how Blizz handles the server populations.

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Sorry, looks like my hard number of 100k projected a little more confidence than I wanted and threw this thread off the rails a bit. At the least I'd say @Stfuppercut 's estimate of 50k really isn't outrageous even considering the limited evidence. As he and @Pippina have said the number is definitely unplayable without layering and Blizzard must be expecting a massive gap between unique and concurrent players as well as a massive bleed-off before phase 2.

Knoxtane wrote:
6 days ago
Funny thing about this. I currently live on the West Coast of the U.S. but will be moving to East coast in about 2 months..so I currently selected Whitemane but not sure if it's the best choice for latency.
I'm in Pennsylvania and get ~82ms on average to the West Coast servers. YMMV

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Lendryn wrote: I'm in Pennsylvania and get ~82ms on average to the West Coast servers. YMMV
Sweet thanks! below 95ms for me is playable and competitive. I was super worried about it. some FPS games I play while connected to Official servers on the east coast..I get like 145ms..but they probably don't have the best servers for an Indie company lol.

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On a different note, I'm glad to see that Blizzard has already added another PvP realm for EU. I think this is a very good sign that if the PvP realms on NA are just way too highly populated, that they will add another realm for people to move to!

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At this current moment the population on the US servers are:

PvP
Herod - Full
Whitemane - Full
Faerlina - Full
Thalnos - Full
Fairbanks - Medium

PvE
Pagle - Full
Mankirk - High
Atiesh - High
Myzrael - Medium

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Bloodsail Buccaneers - Medium
Grobbulus - Meduim

And it's only the third day of name reservation and I can't imagine what it'll be on actual launch day.

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wew lads

I looked at the server lists again tonight and did the same seat of the pants math I did earlier:

Image

Image

Fairbanks just hit high population. So much for being on the low pop realm.

The only PVP server not High or Full population is Stalagg, which was added about 24 hours ago. And it's already Medium just from a day's worth of name reservations.

Again just attempting to guess at % capacity without knowing any numbers, replacing 'low' with 25%, 'medium' with 50%, 'high' with 75%, and 'full' with 100% capacity. I'm guessing, but mostly I'm trying to assign percentages to the descriptions shown on the realm list so it shouldn't be that far off.

This yields 73% capacity across all NA realms

And 83% capacity across the six NA PVP realms

:lol:

Again these percentages are just throwaway guesses, you could have guessed this by just looking at the realm list. But what amuses me is these capacity numbers are higher now than two days ago before they added Stalagg. Two days ago, before they added Stalagg, this same guess formula yielded 57% capacity across all reams. Two days and a new server later and we're up to 73% capacity. Two days and a new server later and they're 16% more full.

And if Reddit polls are to believed, most players haven't subbed yet.

We're still 11 days out. I bet we still have a handful more servers incoming for NA. Would not be surprised to see 4-5 more NA servers come launch day if a lot of people haven't subscribed yet.

   Lendryn Kolvacs
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I guess we can expect another pacific time pvp server within another 48 hours

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My guess blizzard wants to pack us in servers like sardines before they release a fresh server. Theyre gonna need to create servers around launch date as well.

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Undeadlock wrote:
3 days ago
My guess blizzard wants to pack us in servers like sardines before they release a fresh server. Theyre gonna need to create servers around launch date as well.
I had no idea Guests could post :O

But yes, Blizz will most likely create more servers

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I dont think they were expecting us all. I just hope we can all log in and have a good time. Im stoked... been counting down the days like a kid counting down the days for christmas. 10 days.!

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Undeadlock wrote:
3 days ago
I dont think they were expecting us all. I just hope we can all log in and have a good time. Im stoked... been counting down the days like a kid counting down the days for christmas. 10 days.!
They were expecting us all, They are just worried because they can't sell and no one wants to spend money in BFA or future expansion anymore.

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Kazukii wrote:
3 days ago
They were expecting us all, They are just worried because they can't sell and no one wants to spend money in BFA or future expansion anymore.
Does this mean Classic wins?

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Nyxt wrote:
3 days ago
Kazukii wrote:
3 days ago
They were expecting us all, They are just worried because they can't sell and no one wants to spend money in BFA or future expansion anymore.
Does this mean Classic wins?
Classic will always win. No one wanted world quests.
Classic WoW will always be better than the Collect-a-thon, action hero, infinite mana, battle pet garbage that it is today.

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Kazukii wrote:
3 days ago
Classic WoW will always be better than the Collect-a-thon, action hero, infinite mana, battle pet garbage that it is today.
Don't forget there is no more uniqueness to your class!

You need CC in vanilla? Get a Mage (sheep), rogue (sap) or hunter (trap)
You need CC in retail? Get that guy...
You need someone who can rez in vanilla? Priest, Paladin or Shaman
You need someone who can rez in retail? Rogue?? Death knight?? The answer is all...

I like the feeling that I am good at somethings, bad at others and great at one thing.
I'm weird but I liked that, maybe its simplicity....idk....

Retail is Mortal Kombat but with teams, pick a character and fight, everything is minimal, gear, cc, class...

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Nyxt wrote:
3 days ago
Kazukii wrote:
3 days ago
Classic WoW will always be better than the Collect-a-thon, action hero, infinite mana, battle pet garbage that it is today.
Don't forget there is no more uniqueness to your class!

You need CC in vanilla? Get a Mage (sheep), rogue (sap) or hunter (trap)
You need CC in retail? Get that guy...
You need someone who can rez in vanilla? Priest, Paladin or Shaman
You need someone who can rez in retail? Rogue?? Death knight?? The answer is all...

I like the feeling that I am good at somethings, bad at others and great at one thing.
I'm weird but I liked that, maybe its simplicity....idk....

Retail is Mortal Kombat but with teams, pick a character and fight, everything is minimal, gear, cc, class...
To expand on this. I plan on rolling a mage for the $$$. gonna be poppin ports everywhere! NO MORE (ALMOST) Fast Travel with Retail.

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Looks like our estimations of Herod were correct.

https://us.forums.blizzard.com/en/wow/t ... ate/255835

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Based on name reservations so far, the Herod realm is looking to be massively overpopulated. If all existing players on this server remain there, login queues in excess of 10,000 players are a certainty, and possibly much higher than that.

We recently opened up the Stalagg realm, and we urge players on Herod to consider moving there. There are a lot of players currently on Herod and we want Stalagg to fill up before we open any new PvP realms. This is so that player population is spread as evenly as possible before launch, in order to provide the best play experience.

While we are able to fit several times more players on a single realm in 2019 than was the case in 2006, we are not going to raise that cap any further, even though we have the technical capacity to do so. Raising realm caps would simply forestall the problem, letting more players in at launch but creating an unsustainable situation down the line, with severe queues when we turn off layering permanently before Phase 2 of our content unlock plan.

Please also note that our realm population estimates of Low, Medium, High, and Full are based on this increased capacity – a Medium realm today already has more characters on it than even the most crowded realms did back in 2006.

Our top priority in planning for WoW Classic’s launch has been ensuring that we are laying the groundwork for strong realm communities that will endure over the months and years to follow, which is why we’re cautiously opening new servers to meet demand.

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Same goes for EU Shazz

https://eu.forums.blizzard.com/en/wow/t ... date/70777

 Blizzard Entertainment
Based on name reservations so far, the Shazzrah realm is looking to be massively overpopulated. If all existing players on this server remain there, login queues in excess of 10,000 players are a certainty, and possibly much higher than that.

We recently opened up the Gehennas realm, and we urge players on Shazzrah to consider moving there. There are a lot of players currently on Shazzrah and we want Gehennas to fill up before we open any new PvP realms. This is so that player population is spread as evenly as possible before launch, in order to provide the best play experience.

While we are able to fit several times more players on a single realm in 2019 than was the case in 2006, we are not going to raise that cap any further, even though we have the technical capacity to do so. Raising realm caps would simply forestall the problem, letting more players in at launch but creating an unsustainable situation down the line, with severe queues when we turn off layering permanently before Phase 2 of our content unlock plan.

Please also note that our realm population estimates of Low, Medium, High, and Full are based on this increased capacity – a Medium realm today already has more characters on it than even the most crowded realms did back in 2006.

Our top priority in planning for WoW Classic’s launch has been ensuring that we are laying the groundwork for strong realm communities that will endure over the months and years to follow, which is why we’re cautiously opening new servers to meet demand.

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I get that they're cagey about opening too many realms but I don't see why merging realms with low pop later wouldn't just be a good solution. Anyone who understands more than me please chime in

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Lendryn wrote:
3 days ago
Looks like our estimations of Herod were correct.
Yea, its all speculation but for those of us who have been following the project it was quite clear what numbers we were potentially dealing with. Sounds like things are working exactly how me and @Lendryn had eluded to. Fairly predictable for those of us with a keen eye.

We still dont have the exact numbers but we're definitely in the ballpark of 40-100k players and layers are definitely limited by Blizzards anticipated retention rates for the squish leading into phase 2. The wait times on these servers will be dumb... Absolutely dumb and for an extended period which will only compound over time as the layers are naturally removed in preparation for phase 2.

People want to be on full pop realms now until they realize that the more layers you have, the emptier each layer feels and the layering system is not as intelligent as advertised. I cant imagine waiting for an extended period of time to gain entry into a realm that feels more vacant.

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